Number 37: Winter / Spring 2007
The Way to Work
by Philip Goad
Editor's comment: There is no doubt that the rapid advance in technology has had a profound impact on the way in which people work. Four new scenarios from The Henley Centre's HeadlightVision illustrate different ways in which the nature of work could change.
The way we work is changing; but the direction of this change is complex. Changing technology has enabled a degree of mobility and a blurring of boundaries that organisations can find confusing, even threatening, even while they see the new opportunities it affords. In autumn 2006 Henley Centre HeadlightVision worked with members of Orange's Future Enterprise Coalition to complete the second in a series of reports for Orange Business Services examining the future impact of technology on the nature of work and working practices. The Way to Work built a set of scenarios to understand better both the risks and the opportunities.
Scenarios are an effective tool to test significant uncertainties in a future environment, and then draw out the strategic challenges facing organisations in managing uncertainties.
For the purposes of this project two axes of uncertainty were identified through analysis of the important drivers of change in the world of work:
The nature of working relations: the extent to which work will be limited by location (of customers, suppliers, resources, and so on); In other words, whether people have to be somewhere do their job or whether they can work from anywhere;
The control of data: the extent to which the information and intellectual property used by companies will be proprietary and protected or, on the other hand, open and shared.
Four scenarios, or possible future worlds, emerged from the crossing of the two axes
In “Disciples of the Cloud” the notion of the workplace remains central to work. Among the reasons for this are the need to maintain the culture of the organisation, and to control intellectual property.
In “Electronic Cottages” the ‘workplace’ has shrunk because companies are increasingly virtual. Work takes place either in the home or in more local hub offices. Employees have more control over when and where they work, but see value in being employed.
In “Replicants” organisations are highly distributed, physically and structurally. "Replicants" are 'fast followers' who thrive in a world of open innovation by using public knowledge (open source software, or expired patents) as the basis for service or process innovation.
In “Mutual Worlds” businesses operate as loose federations of independent contractors. Intellectual property is controlled by workers; service tends to be geographically located. These ventures are held together by flows of information, and also connected to similar ventures elsewhere, to share knowledge and realise some economies of scale.
The work suggests a number of challenges to some mainstream thinking about the relationship between technology and work.
First, it challenges the notion of the 'death of distance'. Much knowledge creation, and innovation, is specific to particular locations, from Soho to Silicon Valley. And service industries are often rooted firmly in place - a trend that will only get stronger as GPS mobile technologies develop.
Second, it observes that although technology is becoming more pervasive, pervasiveness is not homogenous. Technology will allow both greater freedom and exchange of ideas as well as providing tools for greater control of information and interactions than ever before — an interesting paradox for businesses to address.
Finally, it suggests that, rather than a set of competing futures, these future worlds will be more like an ecology. As in all ecologies, different organisations will have different strengths in different niches. And as in ecologies, the relationships between the niches is as important as the niches themselves. The strategic implications for businesses range across innovation, culture, operations, brands, and leadership. These are explored in greater detail in the report.
“This report paints a picture of the potential futures for organisations. It considers the implications that the different futures hold and provides recommendations on what organisations can do now to take control of the forces driving change, to create their own, unique future”
Robert Ainger, Head of Business Marketing, Orange Business Services
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© Philip Goad / Through the Loop Consulting Ltd 1998-2007