Number 33: Winter 2006
Why Mobile TV Will Work
by Budd Margolis
Editor's comment: Watching TV through the mobile phone is almost upon us. Many have said that this is a technology is search of a consumer need. However, Budd Margolis argues that this is something that consumers will adopt and there other technologies that have been similarly dismissed but have turned out to be successful.
Mobile TV trials are being carried out in Oxford and Cambridge and early results indicate they are being well received. Maybe it's British reserve aimed at any new idea, dare I mention the Steam Locomotive, Channel Tunnel, The Concorde or Sky TV as prime examples? I am constantly amazed at how many people regard the prospect of Mobile TV broadcasting with so much doubt. Permit me to list some obvious evidence:
First of all, we should never use our own bias or feelings to judge any new development because we usually do not fit the demographic. Just because we don’t like it or think we will use it does not mean it will not be successful. I do not eat at McDonald's but that does not mean a 30,000 restaurant chain is a failure.
Mobile TV is hugely popular in Japan, Korea and now in the USA. Generally, people are much more similar than different and if it works in one market, the chances of success in others is high. The reason major companies are flooding into this area is that the research indicates that there is an audience and demand out there.
Many people spend hours commuting; they miss programmes or are not at home when live events such as a football match occur. In the States, for $2 you can download a programme such as “Desperate Housewives” a day after transmission.
The major complaint I hear, from those not using the system, is the size of the screen. If this is an issue then why does the PSP, Nintendo GameBoy, Mobile games and such devices as the video iPod work? If you sit ten feet away from a 32” TV screen how much different is that compared to holding a 2” screen two feet from your eyes? And when people have Virtual Reality glasses they will be able to replicate large screen vision.
Once this technology takes off and becomes as common as seeing Mobile video footage on news programmes, and you see people watching on trains, then and only then will the hard core doubters begin to use it and deny ever being pessimistic about it.
Many broadcasters are already providing 3G services with others are now lining up. One research report suggests that 65 million people globally will be subscribing to streaming or broadcast TV services by 2010.
It is not all positive as there are still some issues to resolve concerning 3G technology which is heavy in bandwidth requirement and is not suitable for major breaking events or mass demand. But further developments in compression and adaptive WIFI use can work to resolve such issues.
Convergence means anytime, anywhere and the threat to traditional broadcasters and gatekeepers is at a critical level. Some will hope that high definition, sports rights and streaming of video on demand will make their offer truly compelling. I think we are seeing the most dynamic threat to traditional content delivery since the invention of wireless transmission. The VoIP operator Skype has shown us that we no longer have to pay for a phone call. Streamed video on broadband will prove that we no longer have to have access to a digital terrestrial, cable or satellite system in order to watch entertainment.
Change is occurring faster and is more severe than at any time. Just as China has changed the competitive landscape of the world's manufacturing and retailing markets, new technology and free access will severely disrupt existing traditional content distribution and Mobile TV broadcasting is just another aspect of this phase. It may not be dominant, but it will produce financial rewards and be considered a very successful venture.
You can no longer doubt the feasibility of this technology because it works and the uptake has already commenced in various markets. Locally, despite personal preferences, consumers are enthusiastic. Maybe it will be priced wrong or have technical faults upon launch, but there are always initial problems with any new product and in time this technology will become ubiquitous. To doubt it today means that one is giving up the chance to profit from the early risk phase. It does not mean one can not profit, just that the risk in time will be lowered and so to will the profit margin. That is a wise and conservative stratagem which I can not fault.
Pool Version 2.0
© Budd Margolis / Through the Loop Consulting Ltd 1998-2006