Written by Jim Murphy.

Though many may already be heartily bored with the Millennium and all its works, those whose business it is to plan for commercial success can hardly risk ignoring it. The Millennium will, after all, introduce a genuinely unique set of economic and cultural circumstances into the workings of virtually every market and thus re-order the already dynamic universe of opportunity that marketing effort currently faces. In this context, one forecast is very easy to make: that the Millennium will leave in its wake its own bastard generation of winners and losers. This will be just as true for those markets- such as entertainment and leisure- which expect the Millennium to bring a power-surge in consumer spending as it is for those markets- such as some financial services- which may not expect to be the focus of fin de siecle consumer energy. The trick is to establish, in these months before the Millennium heaves fully and mightily into view, an envelope of measurable and illuminating propositions covering all the socio-economic forces that the process will unleash and, market by market, to work through the commercial consequences. Let's push aside the avalanche of excitable copy that the Millennium has already caused in the mainstream media and assemble the elements of a working model by which the meaning of this time can be absorbed and exploited.

We make two assumptions.

Already the Millennium is provoking a colossal spend in tourism and leisure infrastructures in the UK. In retrospect, it seems obvious that had the National Lottery not been invented in the mid-1990's, the Millennium would not now be celebrated in so many public works. Some £750m is being spent on the Millennium Dome- a project in which a contribution of £200m from Lottery receipts has invited a similar scale of investment from the private sector. Some 12m visitors are expected- a footfall which would put the Dome overnight into the superleague of European tourist venues. In dozens of other sometimes lavishly funded projects around Britain, the entire commercial personality of towns such as Doncaster and Portsmouth is set to be transformed. Elsewhere, there is an ever-lengthening list of international comparisons: Expo 2000 in Hanover, the giant party in Times Square, the Pope's Jubilee celebrations in Rome, the sunrise events in Gisborne..... This huge increase in the supply of tourist offers is unlikely to depend on "normal" consumer spending; rather it could well have the effect of sucking cash from other markets as the country receives a highly organised invitation to binge.

In the background, the general economic conditions are already favourable. Across 1996-97 in the UK, average earnings grew at a healthy 4.5% and GDP growth in the period 1997-99 will fall somewhere in the 2.5%-3.5% bracket. In Germany, the recently sluggish economy is reviving and GDP growth in the immediate future is likely to be as attractive as that in the UK. Some will argue that the European economy, while expanding, is hardly doing pulse-racingly well and that these are plainly not boom-times. But the point is that all the invitations to spend- and spend differently- that the Millennium represents are being borne on the back of already positive economic expectations among the consuming electorate. In this setting, one might argue- though not everyone will agree- that the birth of economic and monetary union, however troubled, will inflate financial markets and buttress commercial confidence as the century counts itself out. Already bond investors, with EMU in prospect, are enjoying something of a bonanza.

These conditions outlined, it is important to bear in mind that the Millennium is not more than two years away. Governments, companies and consumers are in some cases well-advanced in their Millennium preparation and in their Millennium spending. The event is, in other words, happening in the here-and-now of our prevailing macro-economic circumstances. One could speculate, therefore, that the Millennium has begun to work as a counter-cyclical force, enriching and extending the modest "feel good" around us- and, potentially, worsening the financial hangover in companies and households alike when the first recession of the next century finally arrives.

Despite the best efforts of historians, history can teach us but little about how people will behave as the end of both century and millennium approach. Much is made of the decadence and hedonism which characterised the fin de siecle culture of the last few years of the nineteenth century, but this phenomenon enjoyed a very narrow social range. A scan of marketing activity at the time reveals a negligible effort to exploit the new century's birth for commercial purposes- perhaps suggesting that for much of society at large the new century was not that thrilling a prospect. But the irresistible focus on the essentially transient nature of existence did give rise to extremes of feeling and behaviour in many places and with many effects. Writing in 1895, the author Max Nordau surveyed the cultural depression around him and concluded that "the prevalent feeling is that of imminent perdition and extinction". Some time previously, those who built the Eiffel Tower took a spectacularly different view of past and future glories and erected something to "show our sons what their fathers have accomplished in the space of a century through progress in knowledge, love of work and respect for liberty".

The point for our era is that time ticks very loudly in all our heads as the drama of New Year's Eve 1999 approaches and the electric pulse of history-in-the-making begins to throb. This generation does not need to respond to the thrilling collision of past and future in passive appreciation of public exhibitions and monuments. Nor is the end of this century the exclusive cultural province of a leisured class. We can, most of us, afford to react to the Millennium and all its many personal meanings in whatever ways we want. And react we undoubtedly will.

In her book Clicking, the futurologist Faith Popcorn believes she can explain the rise in what she calls "anchoring" behaviour (revitalised religious faith, renewed interest in and need for family roots....): "because collectively, we're digging deep into our memory, searching for some leap of faith, some link of primal instinct, to help us cut through the daily chaos, or maybe to prepare us for the Big 2000. What a cause for celebration ....and concern. A new year, a new decade, a new century, a new millennium".

Whatever the particular value in Popcorn's analysis about "anchoring" (and we would not be wantonly dismissive of it), it seems plausible that the Millennium experience will have the stark effect of forcing decisions- frequently of a dramatic nature- on individuals and companies alike. Think of all the projects whose authors- with the passage of time growing ever more cacophonous- will want to finish before the end of 1999, the ultimate deadline. Think of all the business plans that will have to be in place if companies are to be psychologically ready for the new century before it begins. Think of all those considering life-changes- all those long-germinating personal revolutions- to whom the Millennium will give just too irresistible a prompt. Think of the consumers considering once-in-a-lifetime purchases/experiences. Think of just of much organised escapism the whole process will demand.

For those companies who have to plan to market and to sell their goods through the next five years as any other, there may well be value in filtering all known socio-economic trends through the prism of the Millennium, to perceive the experience as a process which will impart new energy to all manner of consumer motivations and needs. Such an approach could well deliver fresh definition, comprehensibility and predictability to consumer behaviour in what will inescapably be a chaotic time. What is it that we will actually want from markets and from marketers- from banks, telecommunications companies, brewers, hotels, shops.....- that will conform to all our re-ordered anxieties about this, the time of our lives?

Is it possible to open new consumer segmentations as a device for categorising responses to Millennium culture- segmentations strong enough to be generally applicable, flexible enough to extend into different commercial sectors? Should we perhaps identify consumers as, say, enthusiastic bingers (ready to take any signal to celebrate/spend...), or harassed fugitives (longing to escape the psychological pressure that the experience brings...), or unhappy stocktakers (feeling the pressure of personal underachievement....), or radical innovators (prompted to try new things, take more risks...) ......? In supposing that such ideas could properly be researched into being inside individual consumer markets, we are suggesting that there will be real planning value in doing so. The closest psychological intimacy with consumers in relation to their personal experience of the Millennium would seem justified by the following reflections:-

• that commercial competition for all the cash consumers save or borrow to spend during the Millennium will be severe
• that the invitation to change habits/do different things during the Millennium will be very expensively mounted and sustained
• that the "party atmosphere" will throw particular pressure on relatively unexciting markets
• that the Millennium will be a prolonged cultural process- with its effects lingering long after New Year's Day 2000- and not merely yet-another event
• that nothing like the Millennium, as a mass global phenomenon, has ever happened before
• that many people will in some way or another feel vulnerable or exposed by the emotional intensity that the Millennium experience will bring

And the time to convert such propositions into concrete planning actions is now. The Big Mo of the Millennium is already rolling.

Clicking by Faith Popcorn

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© Jim Murphy / Through the Loop Consulting Ltd 1998-2000